Chapter 4

Is renewal forecasting science, or educated guessing?

Dự báo gia hạn là khoa học, hay là đoán có lý?

The chapter's question

How much money comes up for renewal next quarter, and how much is at risk?

Big idea

A renewal forecast is a list of contracts coming due, each with a reasoned judgement.

In this chapter

  1. Part 4.1

    The Renewal List

    Which contracts expire in the next ninety days?

  2. Part 4.2

    Three Likelihood Levels

    What likelihood level do I give each contract, and on what basis?

  3. Part 4.3

    Forecast Error

    How far off was last quarter's forecast from reality?

  4. Part 4.4

    Raising Flags Early

    Who must be told about at-risk contracts, and when?

The reading for this chapter is inside Conan School

This chapter has 4 readings, with case stories and exercises. Chapter 1 of The Money That Stays is free to read right here.

Read in Conan School

Chapters of The Money That Stays

  1. 1.Is retention a feeling, or is it money?
  2. 2.The software calculates it, so why should I?
  3. 3.Could a healthy retention rate hide customers leaving?
  4. 4.Is renewal forecasting science, or educated guessing?
  5. 5.Does leadership need more numbers, or fewer?