Chapter 3

Is an optimistic forecast confidence or self-deception?

Dự báo lạc quan là tự tin, hay tự lừa?

The chapter's question

How far off was last month's forecast from the result?

Big idea

An optimistic forecast ruins the whole company's plan, and the salesperson loses credibility first.

In this chapter

  1. Part 3.1

    Three Levels of Confidence

    By what levels of certainty do I categorise opportunities?

  2. Part 3.2

    Evidence for Each Level

    What lets me call a deal certain?

  3. Part 3.3

    Your Personal Error Rate

    Do I tend to be optimistic or cautious?

  4. Part 3.4

    Delivering Bad News Early

    When I know I will fall short, when do I say so?

The reading for this chapter is inside Conan School

This chapter has 4 readings, with case stories and exercises. Chapter 1 of The Pipeline is free to read right here.

Read in Conan School

Chapters of The Pipeline

  1. 1.Does a deal advance by my actions or theirs?
  2. 2.How full must my pipeline be, and who says so?
  3. 3.Is an optimistic forecast confidence or self-deception?
  4. 4.Are my notes for my manager or for me?
  5. 5.Is a busy week a productive week?