Chapter 4

If I'm wrong, how bad does it get?

Nếu tôi sai thì hỏng tới đâu?

The chapter's question

If the benefit is only half what was expected, what happens?

Big idea

The important question is not whether it is good, but how badly things break if it is wrong.

In this chapter

  1. Part 4.1

    The Most Sensitive Assumption

    Which assumption, if changed, reverses the conclusion?

  2. Part 4.2

    Can You Resell It

    If I am wrong, how much can I recover?

  3. Part 4.3

    Staging the Investment

    Is there a way to try part of it first?

  4. Part 4.4

    Renting Instead of Buying

    When is leasing the better option?

The reading for this chapter is inside Conan School

This chapter has 4 readings, with case stories and exercises. Chapter 1 of One Big Investment is free to read right here.

Read in Conan School

Chapters of One Big Investment

  1. 1.Is the purchase price the real price?
  2. 2.Should benefits I can't measure count as zero?
  3. 3.Is a simple measure worse than a correct one?
  4. 4.If I'm wrong, how bad does it get?
  5. 5.Who checks whether last year's investment paid off?